Lilly's Tirzepatide can change the type 2 Diabetes therapy space

GRG Health is privileged to be able to engage on projects regarding potentially landmark products and medications.

A recent instance of this privilege is related to a novel medication for type 2 diabetes that is expected to conclusively change the disease landscape for the better.

The focus was Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) – a first-in-class glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) analogue therapy with potential for type 2 Diabetes and a related issue - weight management.

GRG Health conducted interviews across the globe, discussing Lilly's Mounjaro with ~200 respondents – a mix of doctors/providers, insurers, investors & patients, against a deadline of 6 weeks, executed by a team with a strong understanding of the disease, the therapies and primary research.

The timelines made it a sprinting project where interviews were conducted & analyzed simultaneously…. thankfully, a common highlight of all interviews was that everyone was certain of the huge advantage that Mounjaro represented in helping patients achieve better outcomes.

The carefully selected pool of respondents believed that the arrival of Mounjaro and another recent entrant Semaglutide (Ozempic – a GLP analogue from Novo Nordisk that was reviewed in a similar project by the same team with 200 respondents) would potentially change the current path of disease progression as there will be an opportunity to directly manage BMI & Obesity – two factors that exert a strong systemic influence on any patient’s wellbeing.

Its also interesting that while most reports estimated Mounjaro’s revenues at ~$15 – $17 billion, nearly all the interview respondents felt that increasing this estimate by 30 - 40% (to reach ~$25 billion!) was realistic though how Benefits Management respond to Mounjaro (and explicit approval for weight loss) will be key!

For GRG Health, it is interesting to compare the insights for Mounjaro with the findings for Ozempic (earlier project). Unless seen firsthand, it's hard to explain the impact (opinions & revenue estimates) that can be produced through incremental improvements (Mounjaro leads Ozempic by ~3 lbs in weight loss and 0.23% in A1C scores)!

Though the full set of findings will not be disclosed publicly (due to client NDA), GRG Health’s analysis shows that it will be interesting how SGLT2inhibitors find their place on a type 2 Diabetes prescription in the medium – long term as Ozempic and Mounjaro establish themselves (along side the DPP4 inhibitors) – this question about therapy allocation is important for type 2 Diabetes, especially when viewed with regards to the dangers of acute kidney injury against a backdrop of renal overload/failure and chronic kidney disease (CKD).